Authoritative Report Reveals Global Photovoltaic Market Prospects: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey Have Great Potential
Time：2025-02-01 Click：352
[Webber Consulting] Yunnan
According to the report data recently released by S&P Global:
The top ten photovoltaic markets in the world in 2024 are as follows: China, the United States, India, Germany, Brazil, Spain, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Italy.
These top ten photovoltaic markets account for more than 75% of the market share. Among them, it is almost certain that China, the United States, and India lead the top three. Comparing the newly installed capacity of each market, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have become the more eye-catching new markets in the past year.
In addition, the number of GW-scale markets is also increasing. According to SPE data, it is estimated that the number of global GW scale markets will reach 37 in 2024.
I. China, the United States, and India Rank in the Top 3 Globally
1. China
According to the report, China is expected to be the undisputed first with a market share of more than 47%. Based on the data of the National Energy Administration, from January to November 2024, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China was 206.30GW, a year-on-year increase of 26%.
Among them, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in November was 25GW, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on- month increase of 22%. At the beginning of December, CPIA raised the forecast for the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China in 2024 to 230 - 260GW. Looking ahead to 2025, China will still remain the first in the world with a share of more than 40%.
2. The United States
Ranked second is the United States, with a market share of 9%.
In recent years, supported by the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and more green financing channels, the solar power generation in the United States has reached a record high.
The United States is also supporting the domestic manufacturing industry to support the localized production of solar energy enterprises. According to the report "U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2024" by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, five manufacturing plants were newly built or expanded in Alabama, Florida, Ohio, and Texas.
EIA predicts that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the United States in 2024 will be 43.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Among them, the installed capacity of centralized photovoltaics is about 36GW, a year-on-year increase of about 60%; the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics is 7GW, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20%.
It is expected that the United States will continue to maintain its position as the second - largest photovoltaic market in the world in 2025. In terms of market segments, the installed capacity of centralized photovoltaics will maintain moderate growth in the next two years.
3. India
Third is India. JMK Research&Analytics predicts that by March 2025, India will add about 16.9GW of utility-scale photovoltaic systems and 4GW of rooftop photovoltaic installations in the 2025 fiscal year, with an estimated total of more than 20GW. The newly installed capacity in the 2024 fiscal year was nearly 15GW.
II. Germany, Brazil, and Spain Perform Remarkably
1. Germany
The Federal Network Agency of Germany (Bundesnetzagentur) recently announced that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Germany reached 1.013GW in November 2024.
From January to November 2024, the total newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Germany has reached 14.53GW, and the cumulative total installed capacity has reached 97.55GW.
Although the data for December has not been released yet, the report "EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024 - 2028" released by the European Photovoltaic Association SolarPowerEurope predicts that Germany will continue to lead the EU market with a new capacity of 16.1GW throughout the year.
2. Brazil
In the past two years, Brazil has become the leader of the photovoltaic market in Latin America and is expected to remain in the top five of the global photovoltaic market this year.
Infolink predicts that the photovoltaic demand in Brazil in 2024 will be between 16.5 - 18GW and will continue to account for 60 - 65% of the market demand in Latin America. Judging from the forecasts for the next few years, Brazil will still occupy a major position in the Latin American market.
However, Brazil also faces some urgent problems to be solved. For example, the power grids in some parts of Brazil are old or have insufficient coverage, making it difficult for large-scale projects to be smoothly connected to the grid.
At the same time, the growth of distributed photovoltaics has also put greater pressure on the power grid, resulting in grid - connection delays.
Looking ahead to 2025, S&P has moved Brazil's ranking back one place and predicts that it will be ranked sixth in the world and will be surpassed by Spain.
3. Spain
Spain ranks sixth in the global photovoltaic market in 2024. As a traditional photovoltaic market, the penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation in Spain has exceeded 25%.
With the advancement of the energy transition, the Spanish government has formulated an ambitious energy and climate plan (PNIEC), aiming to reach 76GW of solar photovoltaic installed capacity by 2030.
This means that in the next few years, the photovoltaic market in Spain will continue to expand, and the newly installed capacity will remain at a high level.
III. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey Have Great Growth Potential
1. Pakistan
Pakistan is one of the markets with great potential for photovoltaic development in South Asia. In recent years, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in Pakistan has been continuously rising and has exceeded 4.5GW by the end of 2024. (Hyperlink: A New Photovoltaic Market Emerges, Ranking among the Top Ten in the World in 2024)
Especially in 2024, many Chinese photovoltaic companies flocked to Pakistan, which was short of electricity. These companies include Trina Solar, JA Solar, Risen Energy, Chint New Energy, LONGi Green Energy, Huasheng, Aixu, Hanfu, etc. They are all active in this market, and Pakistan has emerged as a major new overseas market for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises.
The Renewables First think - tank in Pakistan (hereinafter referred to as RF) released the report "The Photovoltaic Boom in Pakistan". The report believes that the shift of Pakistan's energy structure to distributed photovoltaics has far-reaching implications. For a country with a peak demand of 30,000 megawatts for the power grid and only 630 megawatts of utility-scale centralized solar installed capacity, the surge in distributed solar energy will greatly change Pakistan's energy system.
According to Pakistan's plan, by 2030, 60% of the country's energy will come from renewable energy. Such an ambitious renewable energy development plan also makes it an important overseas market for photovoltaic enterprises in the future.
2. Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has also become a market with obvious new growth in 2024. In 2024, Saudi Arabia's infrastructure development index score was 137, ranking first among the countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative", rising two places compared with 2023.
According to the renewable energy plan for 2030, Saudi Arabia will vigorously build non-hydropower renewable energy power generation projects to replace oil-fired power plants, hoping to increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation to 50% by 2030.
Given its development expectations, Saudi Arabia's global ranking is expected to rise further in 2025.
3. Turkey
In 2024, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey announced the "Renewable Energy Strategy for Energy Transition in 2035", planning to achieve 120GW of wind and solar installed capacity in 2035. Under this strategy, 7.5 - 8GW of renewable energy installed capacity will need to be added annually.
Previously (in the third quarter), the 2025 budget proposal of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey put forward a new goal: by the end of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of solar energy in Turkey will reach 22.6GW.
It is worth mentioning that the local photovoltaic manufacturing in Turkey has also achieved certain development, and the government is also increasing its support for the manufacturing from silicon ingots to photovoltaic modules.
According to incomplete statistics, the number of major equipment manufacturers in the country has increased from 9 in 2014 to 150 in 2024, and the number of suppliers has increased from 18 to 350.
